Bitcoin (BTC) once again failed to break out of the $70,000 resistance zone and has shown volatility in the past 24 hours, dropping below $67,000 at one point.
Indeed, Bitcoin failed to capitalize on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s bullish stance on including the cryptocurrency in the U.S. Treasury.
Despite Bitcoin’s short-term price fluctuations, analysts argue that the premier cryptocurrency is destined to reach new all-time highs. Notably, in a July 27 post on X, analyst apsk32 suggested that his model of Bitcoin’s past price movements suggests a target of around $200,000.
The analyst has taken a detailed look at Bitcoin’s price fluctuations over the past 13 years and made some surprising predictions about its future. The analyst used a combination of power law and exponential decay models in predicting where Bitcoin will go next.
In particular, the “Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Cloud” shows Bitcoin’s historical price fluctuations within two key boundaries: the lower limit of the power law and the upper limit of the exponential decay. These boundaries create a channel along which Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated closely following these mathematical models over the years.
Bitcoin power law cycle chart. Source: apsk32
According to apsk32, the lower limit of this channel is defined by a power law that has supported Bitcoin’s price stably, while the upper limit is determined by an exponential decline in the peak, effectively limiting the highest price Bitcoin has achieved.
Bitcoin hits record high of $200,000
The analysis predicts that Bitcoin will reach a peak of $200,000 by 2025. This peak prediction is consistent with the upper limit established by the exponential decay model. However, the prediction does not stop at the peak. After this expected high, Bitcoin’s price will decline significantly, falling to around $85,000 by 2026.
“The power law provides the lower bound and the exponential decline from the peak provides the upper bound. Keeping an eye on this 13-year trend, we can expect it to change. What does this mean for this cycle? (1) Bitcoin will peak below $200,000 in 2025. (2) Bitcoin will fall to $85,000 in 2026,” the expert said.
Notably, the power law and exponential decay models have consistently predicted Bitcoin price movements over the past 13 years. Interestingly, apsk32 noted that the models are in line with the predictions of other major players, such as Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), who have shared various price targets for the cryptocurrency.
At the Bitcoin Conference in 2024, Saylor predicted that in a base case scenario, Bitcoin could reach a market cap of $280 trillion, with an annual return of 29%, worth $13 million, or 7% of global wealth. In a bull case, Saylor sees Bitcoin soaring to $49 million, or 22% of global wealth.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,470, down about 1% in 24 hours, and on the weekly chart, it was up about 0.8% after hitting a record high of about $69,300.
Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: Finbold
As things stand, Bitcoin’s main hurdle lies in reclaiming the $70,000 levels, but investors should keep an eye on the $67,000 support area.
Disclaimer: The content of this site does not constitute investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk. Share
