It’s mid-July, the peak of the NHL Draft and free agency frenzy is over, and the Blue Jackets are starting to look ahead to the 2024-25 season but aren’t making any major changes to their lineup.
Sure, a few players have come in and a few have left, but overall, new general manager Don Waddell hasn’t completely turned the tide for the Blue Jackets in his first season at the helm.
And in many ways, it makes a lot of sense. Waddell spoke highly of the team’s promising prospect pool when he was hired by the team in May. While the team has several veteran leaders, center Sean Monahan and defenseman Jack Johnson were both acquired in free agency. The Blue Jackets will depend on the development of the young players on the roster to translate into the team’s long-term success.
In other words, acquiring too many new players would likely be a wasted effort, and such changes would likely hinder the young players on the roster rather than making a significant difference to the win-loss record.
Once again, a key focus for next season will be how young players such as Kirill Marchenko, Egor Chinakhov, Adam Fantili, Dmitri Voronkov, Kent Johnson, David Ilicek and Denton Mateichuk continue to develop after a season in which many of them showed their talents.
Waddell has made some additions to the roster, but the big story of the offseason so far has been departures: Alexandre Texier was traded, Adam Boqvist was bought out, Alex Nielunder, Jake Bean and Nick Blankenberg all left in free agency.
As a result, the Blue Jackets have largely zeroed in on players they believe will be key to the team’s future, making the task of putting together this year’s Opening Day lineup a little easier than usual.
This is something we plan to do every July once the first day of free agency is over and rosters begin to take shape, but there is one caveat to be aware of right now: Patrick Laine’s trade request. The talented wing will remain with the Blue Jackets, but Waddell has acknowledged that he is helping Laine find a new team, which could cause another domino to fall in terms of the lineup if he returns via trade. As such, we won’t be including Laine in our current projected lineups either.
But for now, we’ll try to make some predictions about what the game against Minnesota will look like on Oct. 10. Take everything with a grain of salt, but here are some initial predictions for what the Blue Jackets could field as their opening lineup as they approach next season.
forward
Johnny Gaudreau – Sean Monahan – Egor Chinakhov
Boone Jenner – Adam Fantilli – Kirill Marchenko^
Kent Johnson^ – Cole Schillinger^ – Dmitri Voronkov
Justin Danforth – Sean Clary – Mathieu Olivier
Also participating are Gavin Brindley, Hunter McKone, Michael Piccia, Luca Del Bell Bells, James Malatesta, Trey Fix-Wolanski, Dylan Gambrell, Owen Schillinger and Kayden Lindstrom.
^ Indicates that the player remains an unsigned restricted free agent
Waddell all but made it clear when Monahan signed that he would likely slot in as the team’s No. 1 centre, allowing him to rekindle his bond with Gaudreau, who was his consistent linemate in Calgary from 2014-15 to 2020-21. The two played more than 5,500 minutes at 5-on-5 together over seven seasons, outscoring opponents 271-226 during that time, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The bigger question is who makes the most sense to have on the wing opposite Gaudreau, and for that assignment, I’ll start with Chinahof. He was on pace to score nearly 30 goals last season while battling injuries, and his speed and explosiveness would be an added benefit to a veteran pairing. He’s also an elite finisher, which would pair well with two players with playmaking skills.
There are some intriguing combinations in the middle six, but starting with the middle center, Fantilli seems most likely to retain the No. 2 center spot in his second season. Waddell acknowledged on July 1 that the Monahan deal also allows the Blue Jackets to move Jenner back to the wing, where Jenner’s high-energy, hard-forechecking style has served him well thus far.
Jenner can play quite a bit at center, but here we’ll start with Schillinger, who finished the 2023-24 season strong, as the third center. We also considered putting Johnson and Marchenko on either side of Fantilli. That would give us three young, skilled players. On the other hand, we also considered putting Jenner and Voronkov on either side of Schillinger. That would be pretty tough for opponents to play against. But in the end, we thought it made more sense to split them up a bit.
If Jenner were to move to the wing, it would make sense to have him play alongside Fantilli, as he is both a leader on the ice and someone to help out on the faceoff dot. Jenner would also work well with Marchenko, as he could provide a presence in front of the net for shots and clean up rebounds given Kirill’s tendency to shoot the puck.
Johnson and Sillinger also seem like a good pairing, and Voronkov’s presence could open up opportunities for those two young players. The third line is still relatively young, but they could mesh well if given the chance.
But ultimately, there may be some combinations that make sense, and a few different lines may be tried out in the early stages to see which ones work well.
The fourth line is perhaps the easiest to put together, given the success the trio of Danforth, Kuraly and Olivier have had thus far. The trio played 127 minutes together at 5-on-5 last season, during which the Blue Jackets had an expected goal share of 52.7 percent, according to MoneyPac. So there’s a lot to like about a line that’s difficult for opponents to play against, but also has an offensive advantage.
Elsewhere, picking this year’s starting 12 was a little easier than usual, as the Blue Jackets have 12 players who were regulars this past season. Of the group in search of playing time, it would be most interesting to see Brindley make the starter, as he is a second-round pick and has proven NHL skills. At the same time, he will be just 20 years old at the start of the season, so he will likely begin the year with some pro experience in Cleveland. There are some promising players in this group, but all of them would benefit from more time at the AHL level.
Gambrell, a 27-year-old free-agent centre with 233 NHL games under his belt, could fill in if needed. Lindstrom, the team’s first-round draft pick, could come knocking down the door, but the depth of the centre roster makes it more likely he’ll continue to develop at the junior level.
Defenseman
Zach Werenski – David Ilicek
Ivan Provorov – Damon Severson
Jack Johnson – Erik Gudbranson
Other candidates include Jake Christiansen and Denton Mateichuk.
The biggest question remaining for the Blue Jackets’ defense is who will play on the top pairing with Werenski, a two-time All-Star who is coming off the best season of his career offensively. He’s one of the best defensive linemen in the league, averaging 25 minutes per game, but the Jackets are still looking for a suitable fit to skate alongside him on the right side.
According to MoneyPac, Severson got the most five-on-five minutes last season with 456. The next most were the now-departed Boqvist (333) and Gudbranson (233), with Ilicek skating just 43 minutes with CBJ’s top defenseman.
Ideally, Ilicek would make the most sense to start there, but he’ll only be 20 years old come Opening Day. He’s not lacking in talent, but he’s still growing in terms of experience. But he’s coming off a very good playoff run with Cleveland, and I’m going to start him simply because his style is the best fit with Werenski’s.
Provorov and Severson also seem like a natural pairing. Per MoneyPac, the Blue Jackets scored 52% of their expected goals when the two were on the ice together last season. Severson could easily move up and play Werenski, but my gut feeling is that keeping the pair in the No. 2 spot would provide more stability while also giving Ilicek a chance up top.
The third pairing would start with a duo of big, defensively skilled veterans in Johnson and Gudbranson. This would also make sense as they have a combined 31 years of NHL experience and have played a fair amount of defensive zone faceoffs and can provide some consistency there. Johnson is also an accomplished penalty killer and was a solid player in his own zone last season.
There are other players being considered. I have Johnson starting as the third left wing, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Christiansen or Matejchuk in the starting lineup. Johnson was signed as a veteran backup, but he can also be a leader on defense. These two young guys should get plenty of playing time when they’re ready. Christiansen will be 25 for Opening Day, but he’s proven everything he needs to in the AHL, and he’s been an All-Star for the last few years and one of the league’s highest scoring defensemen. There are many in the CBJ organization who believe he’ll be ready to be a regular in the NHL.
Mateichuk is fresh off a dominating season at the junior level and may not need much experience, but my guess is the 20-year-old will get some pro experience in the AHL at least at the start of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t take him too long to earn an NHL job.
Goalkeeper
Elvis Merzlikins/Daniil Tarasov
Other participants include Jett Greaves and Zach Sawchenko.
Waddell has made it clear since taking over that he wants to work with Merzlikins, who has posted an .889 save percentage over the past two seasons and has three seasons remaining on his contract. Merzlikins has played well at times over the past few years, but consistency has been his biggest issue. Could the changes around the team help him get back to the level that earned him a top-five finish in Vezina Trophy voting in 2019-20?
There are two big questions surrounding Tarasov: first, can he stay healthy after a couple of injury-plagued seasons, and second, whether his late-season play (.933 save percentage over his last 13 games) is something he can achieve consistently. Highly touted as a prospect to climb the ranks, Tarasov is 25 and could be a No. 1 contender if he can recapture the form he was in late last season.
There is certainly potential in this group, but each goalkeeper at the top of the depth chart also has something to prove and there must be no shortage of motivation.
Other than that, Greaves’ excellent season in both the AHL and NHL last season showed he’s on his way to being a full-time NHL player, but there’s nothing wrong with him continuing to work on his game as the team’s third goaltender this season. After all, the list of 23-year-old goaltenders who have had success in the NHL isn’t that long. At this point, if everyone is healthy, it looks like he’ll be paired with veteran Savchenko, who was signed from Vancouver this offseason. Also, 21-year-old Cleveland signee Pavel Kajan will continue to gain experience on the wing.
