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A day without Latino immigration and immigrant marches. Photo: Graham Kilmer.
Starting with a poll conducted in 2012, Marquette University School of Law frequently includes the question, “Which statement most closely matches your view of illegal immigrants currently working in the United States?” . Respondents were asked to choose from three answers:
Illegal immigrants should be able to stay in their jobs and eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. They should be allowed to remain on the job only as temporary guest workers, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. They should be asked to quit their jobs and leave the United States.”
The graph below tracks the response over time. As the following graph shows, the answers changed after this question was asked 22 times. However, more than half of respondents said they would allow immigrants to stay and apply for citizenship (shown in green).
This is compared to two other options: stay as a guest worker (yellow) or leave (red). Each was selected by approximately 20% of respondents. But the most recent poll, conducted last April, saw a surge in support for allowing illegal immigrants to leave the United States at the expense of staying and applying for citizenship.
Undocumented immigrants working in the United States must:
The following graph shows the average responses for all 22 times the question was asked, depending on whether the respondent identified as a Republican, Independent, or Democrat. Clearly, Democrats are most favorable to allowing immigrants to stay and apply for citizenship. That said, multiple Republican respondents supported allowing immigrants to stay and apply for citizenship.
Responses by political party averaged across all 22 surveys
The following graph compares the results of two recent surveys conducted in the springs of 2022 and 2024. In 2022, 47% of Republicans supported allowing immigrants to remain. By 2024, this percentage has fallen to 21%. Meanwhile, the percentage of Republicans who support deporting immigrants from the United States increased from 30% to 56%.
In contrast, the percentage of Democrats who would allow immigrants to stay and apply for citizenship was in the 80% range in both surveys.
Comparison of 2022 and 2024 responses
It seems clear that former President Donald Trump’s attacks on immigrants are having an impact on Republican voters. Recently, his dehumanizing language has escalated further, including that the United States is “a trash can for the world,” that Democrats are “releasing an army of immigrant gangs to wage a campaign of violence,” and that “I “Every time I appear,” he claims. I get more and more angry when I talk about what they did to our country. ”
A recent study conducted by the University of Wisconsin with a grant from the National Institute of Justice contradicts President Trump’s claims on immigration and crime. An analysis using data from the Texas Department of Public Safety found that immigrants have lower crime rates than U.S.-born citizens, and illegal immigrants have lower crime rates than legal immigrants.
Texas was chosen because Texas law requires law enforcement in the state to investigate a person’s place of birth and citizenship when making an arrest. Authorities send the person’s fingerprints to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which reports the person’s immigration status. This status becomes part of your criminal record in Texas.
Researchers used that data to determine the average arrests for three groups: U.S.-born citizens (blue in the chart below), immigrants who are here legally (red box), and illegal immigrants (green). calculated the rate. The following graph shows that illegal immigrants have the lowest arrest rates for violent crimes, property crimes, drug violations, and traffic violations.
Arrest rate per 100,000 people
The following chart further breaks down the violent crime data. Again, illegal immigrants have the lowest arrest rate, the exact opposite of what President Trump claims.
Texas Felony Arrest Rate (2012-18)
The study used data from 2012 to 2018, the end of the Obama administration and the beginning of the Trump administration. This report includes several graphs showing crime rates in Texas and California over these years. In each case, the rate is lower for immigrants than for U.S.-born people (California’s data do not distinguish between documented and undocumented immigrants). In the words of the research:
We found no evidence, descriptive or otherwise, to suggest that the transition from the Obama to Trump administrations had a meaningful impact on immigrant criminal activity, including violence, property, drug, and transportation offenses. Not yet.
Trump consistently and increasingly paints America as a hellhole. Evidence supports the opposite conclusion. In other words, people want to immigrate to America because they believe life is better here. They are literally voting with their feet. Perhaps President Trump would have been happier if the situation had been reversed, if Americans had fled to Venezuela in droves.
Looking at the problems in the private sector, my professor said “happy problems.” These are the problems that come with success. Perhaps the demand for the product exceeds the supply capacity and quality problems may occur. In this view, MAGA poses a major threat to American greatness.
The Washington Post recently teamed up with YouGov to test voters’ support for or opposition to more than 100 policy proposals by the two leading presidential candidates.
Below is a list of President Trump’s immigration proposals and the percentage of poll respondents who supported them, ordered from most popular to least popular. For example, 82% approve of President Trump’s proposal to deport gang members and drug traffickers.
Below is a list of Kamala Harris’ immigration proposals.
Remarkably, only three of the 15 proposals lacked majority support, particularly Harris’ proposal to increase refugee admissions. That’s unsettling.
The two lists may suggest one reason why it is so difficult to reach a consensus on what an effective policy on immigration should include. As long as there are governments that oppress their people, legal or illegal immigration to the United States is likely to maintain its appeal.
