This was a classic hot mic moment. While Kamala Harris was having beers with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at a Michigan bar on Saturday, the vice president apparently let slip that her campaign is having a hard time understanding male voters.
“We need to change positions among men,” she was heard confiding, apparently unaware that the microphone was still on.
Ms. Harris, in particular, has worked hard to reach out to young black voters, and at one point solicited former President Barack Obama to join her. Reactions on social media suggested the intervention backfired, with many considering his comments rude and patronizing.
Harris’s task is made even more difficult by a decline in church attendance among young black men in America, according to a new analysis seen by Newsweek magazine.
Democrats have long enjoyed and relied on support from this demographic. Since 1980, no Democrat has received less than 80 percent of the black vote, and churches and religious communities serve as important communication channels for the Democratic Party.
Ms. Harris, a Baptist and former choir girl with a long history in the civil rights movement, seems well suited for connections with religious leaders.
But the church appears to be losing support among younger voters, leaving a hole in Harris’ reach.
Research by 2040 Strategy Group shows that Millennial and Gen Z voters now make up more than 45 percent of Black voters, and that these same groups are significantly less involved in church than older generations .
Kamala Harris speaks to the congregation during a drive-in church service at the Millennium Center in Southfield, Michigan, on October 25, 2020. Democratic candidates are using less traditional methods to appeal to black voters. Kamala Harris speaks to the congregation during a drive-in church service at the Millennium Center in Southfield, Michigan, on October 25, 2020. Democratic candidates are using less traditional methods to reach black voters. Getty Images
According to Pew Research, baby boomers are significantly more religious than Millennial and Gen Z voters, with about 50 percent of baby boomers reporting regularly attending Black gatherings. Only 3 in 10 Millennial and Gen Z voters said they participated.
Tabitha Bonilla, Ph.D., co-founder of the 2040 Strategy Group and a voting behavior expert, told Barron’s that declining congregation attendance is a cultural trend, as young people are less likely to have strong religious beliefs. He said it was part of.
“Church attendance is declining with each generation. According to Pew data, Black church attendance has declined by about 13% from the oldest generation to the youngest generation. In addition to lower attendance rates, younger generations also tend to have lower rates of black church attendance.”They are simply less religious in general and less connected to black churches.
“Ultimately, what this means is that political organizers need to respond to changes in the Black community. Political organizers need to keep up with the changes in the Black community. Political organizers should not try the same old organizing methods or bring older Black voters to the polls. “You can’t just assume that the message that sends you out is the same as the outcome of the vote for young black voters,” she said.
The Harris campaign seems to know this, and is turning to less traditional campaign tactics to reach young black voters.
Ms. Harris’ radio interview with Charlamagne the God, a young black shock jock turned political commentator, was far better received than previous campaign events, and her trendy ad, which leveraged the social media format, was also well-received online. gained.
Harris was able to obtain encouraging data late in the race.
The 2040 Strategy Group poll, compiled from Oct. 4 to 19, shows she has gained 10 percentage points over Gen Z black men since early October, and Biden’s share of the black vote in 2020. It became equivalent.
Dr. Alvin Tillery, founder of the Black Equality Alliance, told Newsweek magazine that Harris’ unusual style of campaigning was successful.
“Vice President Harris has the potential to gain support with black male voters to win on November 5th. In just three weeks, she has significantly increased support among young black men and “We increased support for it by 10 points,” he said.
“Our tracking polling to date shows that the weaker-than-usual support for Biden and Harris among Black voters during the 2024 presidential campaign is driven by mass turnover effects in the Black community. are.
“Millennial and Gen Z voters, who are less attached to the Democratic Party and difficult to reach through traditional vote-getting methods such as black churches and 501c3 nonprofits, currently make up 45% to 50% of black voters. There is.
“Every pledge of support is important and signals that Ms. Harris’ shift in strategy to speak more directly to the Black community is a wise move,” Dr. Bonilla said.
Harris currently has an approval rating of 87%, and some voters remain determined. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won more than 90% of the black Protestant vote, but in the last election, Biden won 90%.
Former President Barack Obama has made visits to churches and local Black communities a centerpiece of both campaigns, and Biden’s closeness with South Carolina’s Black leaders is a sign of his success in the 2019 Democratic primary. It was crucial in the victory.
President Barack Obama speaks at the funeral of Dorothy Height, a landmark figure in the U.S. civil rights movement, at the National Cathedral in Washington, DC, on April 29, 2010. President Obama welcomed visiting religious leaders… On April 29, 2010, a ceremony was held for Dorothy Height, a historical figure in the American civil rights movement, at the National Cathedral in Washington, DC. President Obama has made visiting religious leaders a key part of both campaigns. Other Getty Images
Peter Lose, a former Obama administration adviser, told Barron’s that strong support from black voters has consistently given Democrats an advantage in critical battleground states, and that could be the difference in this election. He said there is.
“About one-third of Georgians are African-American, and about one-in-four North Carolinians are African-American. Both states are important to both candidates and will move in either direction.” “It’s possible. Even in states with small black populations, every vote counts, so every voter matters,” he said.
Trump has also won support from black voters throughout his three presidential elections. Between the 2016 and 2020 elections, his share of the black vote increased by 4 percentage points, from 8 percent to 12 percent, and polls show he could make a similar jump this year.
According to a poll released Tuesday by the NAACP, 63 percent of black voters support Harris over Trump, but that still leaves Trump with a sizable portion of the electorate. Furthermore, while support for Harris remains high among black women at 67%, it has fallen to 49% among black men under 50, again highlighting the disparity between men and women.
“In an election this close, every vote can make a difference. If Black voters lack support for Trump and Harris voters, they could lose the White House,” Rosi said. said.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment on this article via email.
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