For many, the specter of November 8, 2016 looms over Election Day, November 5, 2024. Election Day 2016 was poised to see Democrat Hillary Clinton become the first female president. Famously, that didn’t happen. At 2:40 a.m. that Wednesday, major media outlets began calling for Republican Donald Trump to run.
Four years later, it took until the Saturday after Election Day for two major news coalitions to be able to report that Democrat Joe Biden had won against Trump.
It is difficult to predict when the winner of this year’s presidential election between Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris will be revealed. As The New Republic reported on October 23, “Republican-leaning polls have been released in large numbers for the very purpose of influencing voting averages and, in turn, election forecasts in Trump’s favor. “It was done.” If we just look at the well-known independent polls, a few things are clear at this point, just days before the election.
In seven states, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, the polls are too close to predict the outcome. They have a total of 93 electoral votes (EV). In 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden won 6 out of 7 votes (all states except North Carolina). Current polls in these states project Harris with 50 EV and Trump with 43 votes. Two states, Nebraska and Maine, divide their electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district. According to current opinion polls, of the nine electoral votes the two candidates will receive, five will go to Trump and four to Harris. In the other 41 states, where the results appear more or less predictable (based on each state’s past voting record, current large voting margins, and known demographics), Harris has 222 EVs and Trump has 222 EVs. The number of EVs owned by Japan is 214. Add in the likely split in Nebraska and Maine, and the numbers show a core of 226 for Harris and 219 for Trump.
If EVs in battleground states were distributed based on who has the smallest profit margin, Harris would win by 276 votes and Trump by 262 votes. He needs 270 votes to win.
If neither candidate shows a clear path to 270 as of 10pm ET, Trump will likely receive an EV of 258 to Harris’ 196. When voting ended at 11 p.m. (8 p.m. PDT) in California, Washington, Oregon and Idaho, Mr. Trump won four electors from Idaho and Ms. Harris won 74 electors from three West Coast states. When including people, the number jumps to 270 people, the victory mark.
But no one should expect to be able to go to bed at a decent time on November 5th. Too many “ifs,” “ands,” and “buts.” Numerous other scenarios could play out, including the possibility that some states may not know their results until hours or even days after voting ends.
Additionally, there are other races of interest to LGBTQ voters Tuesday night. Perhaps most importantly, lesbian U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin is running for reelection to a third term in a very close race. Republicans have blasted the state in television ads, claiming Baldwin is an extreme extremist who is trying to “force female students to share locker rooms with biological males.” Her opponents claim that Baldwin wants to “change Title IX so that boys can play in women’s sports and that boys can enter women’s locker rooms and restrooms.” They even mocked her for “sleeping with Wall Street,” a thinly veiled reference to other attack ads pointing out that Baldwin’s wealthy girlfriend is a Manhattan investment advisor.
A gay Republican is running a high-profile campaign to win a vacant U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey, but he is not expected to win.
This year, 15 openly LGBTQ people are running for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives (10 incumbents and five challengers). Polls suggest that four of the five new members could win, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to gain a majority in the House. Things are a little more complicated in the Senate. There, Democrats will need to hold on to Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and win New Jersey and Michigan to maintain their Senate majority.
Below is a quick overview of when and what to watch on election night (all EDT).
7pm to 8pm
Presidential election: Trump is likely to win 82 electoral votes and Harris will win 16 votes. If Harris wins either Georgia or North Carolina, it would be a major upset. Take a look at 13 EVs in Virginia. Polls show it’s “likely” to go to Harris, but an upset there would seriously jeopardize Harris’ prospects for the rest of the night. .
U.S. House of Representatives: Vermont incumbent Becca Balint (at-large) is poised for an easy victory.
8pm to 9pm
Presidential Election: Battleground states to watch this hour are Michigan and Pennsylvania. Harris needs both. If Trump wins either way, he has a much better chance of reaching No. 270.
US Senate: Curtis Bashaw, an openly gay hotelier, is running for the seat vacated by New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez. (Mr. Menendez was convicted in July of accepting bribes in return for aiding Egypt and Qatar.) In addition to running in red elections in very blue states, Mr. Bashaw has previously He has never held elective office, and his Democratic opponent has served two terms in the United States. house.
9:00pm – 10:00pm
Presidential election: Wisconsin is a must-win for Harris. Arizona is close but leaning toward Trump. If Harris wins Pennsylvania and Michigan in the past hour, Wisconsin will reach the magic mark of 270 electoral votes needed for Harris to win by the time the West Coast states’ results are reported. You will be in a position to do so.
U.S. Senate: Lesbian U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin is in a very close race for a third term. Her opponent, a Republican businessman, has a brother whose political action committee spent millions of dollars on attack ads against Baldwin. One attack ad states that New York residents have donated $1.3 million to Baldwin’s campaign. She does not mention that her opponent, Republican Eric Hovde, has a home and business in Orange County, California. And Hovde’s brother Stephen has donated at least $2 million to oppose Baldwin.
U.S. House of Representatives: State Rep. Julie Johnson leads the polls to win Texas’ 32nd Congressional District seat. The Dallas Morning News endorses her and she could become the first openly LGBTQ congresswoman from a southern state Former U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones represents New York’s 17th Congressional District I’m running for a seat. Polls show him tied with Republican incumbent Michael Lawler.
10pm – 11pm
Presidential election: Nevada, a battleground state with six EVs, is leaning toward Harris, but some polls currently show her in favor. National Public Radio reported this month that the Trump campaign spent $17 million on campaign ads portraying Harris as supporting transgender surgeries for prison inmates and immigrants. The ads are running in all seven battleground states, including Nevada.
11am – 12am
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: If there was a “red wave” of votes for Trump for most of the evening, as there was in 2020, but Trump only received 263 electoral votes, at 11 p.m. A “blue tsunami” will strike. Votes from California, Oregon and Washington. All three get Harris, giving her 74 EVs for a total of 270.
U.S. House of Representatives: California and Washington each have at least one openly LGBTQ House candidate and are well-positioned to win. In California, Will Rollins is running for the second time for the 41st Congressional District seat. He is running against Republican incumbent Ken Calvert, with the latest polls showing the two tied. In Washington state, state Sen. Emily Randall was the top vote-getter in the all-party primary, 23,000 more votes than the other top Democrat and 1 vote more than the next-highest Republican. That’s a lot of votes. The Democratic Party is seen to have a strong hold on this seat.
