With their financial commitment, the Miami Dolphins have signaled they have full confidence in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to one day lead the team to where it wants to be.
Tagovailoa clearly understands that, especially considering the team hasn’t won a playoff game since December 2000.
Tua understands the expectations that come with his new contract, the richest in franchise history.
“Now that this is all over and done with, it’s in the past. We know the crown is heavy, so whoever is wearing it now, I am the highest paid employee in this office,” Tua said at a press conference on Sunday. “I have to pull my whole thing together, do it right, and move my people in the direction we need to go so we can do those things.”
Tagovailoa is one of three quarterbacks to recently receive a second contract from their drafting team, along with Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars and fellow 2020 draft class member Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.
All three will face extra scrutiny this season — possibly even more so for Tua, but that’s another story — and they’re also trying to buck an ominous trend when it comes to quarterbacks in their situations.
Simply put, a quarterback’s performance very often declines in his first season after signing a lucrative contract extension.
Circumstances vary, and this doesn’t mean we should assume anything in terms of Love, Lawrence or, more importantly, Tua’s projected performance in 2024, but there is clearly a trend.
Prior to this offseason, eight quarterbacks had signed big second contracts with the teams that drafted them: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones.
Four of those eight saw their passer ratings drop (sometimes dramatically) in their first season after the extension, with the most dramatic drop being Allen’s, who went from 107.2 in 2020 to 92.2 in 2021, but he still led the Buffalo Bills to an AFC East title and had a great performance in what would have been a big playoff win at Kansas City if not for a 13-second collapse.
Perhaps more importantly, we should look at each QB’s records in his first season after his contract extension, with the full understanding that other facts influence that as well.
Teams that have given their quarterbacks big contract extensions have performed worse every time except once, with the Baltimore Ravens going from 8-4 with Jackson as the starter to 13-3 in 2023.
Last year alone, the Chargers fell from 10-7 to 5-12 while Herbert’s passer rating actually stayed at 93.2. Cincinnati was 12-4 before Burrow was sidelined with a wrist injury and went 5-5 with him. The Eagles were 14-1 with Hurts but went 11-6 as his passer rating dropped from 101.5 to 89.1.
Here’s the creepiest (if that’s even the right word) fact about his second big contract: Tom Brady signed a contract extension in August 2002, but the Patriots finished 9-7 that season and missed the playoffs. It was the only time in Brady’s career that he never made the playoffs (except for the 2008 season, which ended after one game).
But it all worked out well for the people of New England, as Brady and the Patriots bounced back and won the Super Bowl in the 2003 and 2004 seasons.
The Dolphins would never mind taking a step back and taking two big steps forward, even if it means causing a big upset for a while.
But for now, there is genuine optimism that Tua and the Dolphins can be a team similar to what Lamar and the Ravens were last season.
— Tua signs contract extension
–Details on Tua’s franchise record deal
— Tua grateful for ‘life-changing’ new contract
