All of our coverage of Virginia’s demographic trends in one place.
Immigration is a divisive issue in American politics for many reasons, but one of them is that different parts of the country have vastly different experiences with immigrants.
We live in a time when politics are polarized along geographic lines — Democrats in urban areas, Republicans in rural areas — and while these parties may have some natural leanings on immigration issues, their differences are exacerbated by geographic differences.
Here’s what I take from the new U.S. Census Bureau numbers: Let’s assume immigration came to a screeching halt. Republicans have long supported reducing immigration numbers more than Democrats, though not even Donald Trump has proposed that. A 2021 study by the libertarian Cato Institute found that Trump was “vastly successful in reducing legal immigration” but “failed to eradicate illegal immigration” because he “oversaw the virtual collapse of domestic immigration enforcement.” Let’s leave these debates for another day and just look at the numbers and geography instead.
Now, let’s go back to our thought experiment: what would happen if there was zero immigration?
Most of Virginia, primarily rural, Republican-leaning Virginia, will likely see no difference.
New census figures show some parts of Virginia literally had no international immigration in 2023. Eleven counties (Buckingham, Charles City, Craig, King and Queen, Matthews, Page, Patrick, Rappahannock, Scott, Sussex and Wise) and two cities (Franklin and Norton) did not record a single foreign resident moving in.
Meanwhile, seven counties (Giles, Highland, Northumberland, Southampton, Surrey, Westmoreland and Wise) and three cities (Bristol, Buena Vista and Galax) saw declines in their foreign-born populations.
With the exception of Galax and Westmoreland counties, these areas originally had very low foreign-born populations, usually less than 2%, and sometimes less than 1% (Craig, King and Queen, Scott, and Buena Vista), with the lowest being Norton at 0.1%. The exceptions are Galax, whose foreign-born population of 7.8% seems quite high compared to its neighbors in Southwest Virginia, but is tiny by other area standards, and Westmoreland County, whose foreign-born figure of 13.7% is close to the national average of 15.6%.
This isn’t an unusual tally: Most rural Virginia counties saw single-digit numbers of foreign residents last year, like one or two. In my hometown of Botetourt County, the number was nine.
If the Statue of Liberty were to turn off the “lamp beside her golden door” tomorrow, most of rural Virginia (mostly Republican) would hardly notice.
The situation will be much different in urban areas, i.e. Democratic-leaning areas. If you’ve read my demographic columns over the past year or so, you know that Virginia is experiencing a demographic paradigm shift. Right now, it’s Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads that are losing population, while some (not all, but some) rural Virginia areas are gaining population. I’ve noted before that this is because more people are moving out of these areas than are moving in. Births are outpacing deaths in these areas, but not enough to make up for the massive exodus of moving trucks.
The new census statistics allow us to dig deeper into these trends. While we shouldn’t get too hung up on one-year trends, in these cases the trends are similar to other recent years, and it’s sometimes easier to imagine changes over one year than over three. Digging deeper, we find that many urban areas would have experienced even greater population declines without immigration. (Don’t be put off by the words: migration means people moving from anywhere, whether it’s Indiana or India. Immigration specifically refers to international migration. To avoid confusion, the Census Bureau prefers the terms “domestic migration” and “international migration,” so I will use those terms when referring to this data from now on. I also want to point out that these Census Bureau numbers are slightly different from the ones I typically rely on, the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia. There are some methodological differences between the two, but the numbers are not that different. The main difference today is that Weldon Cooper doesn’t distinguish between domestic and international migration, while the Census Bureau does, so today it’s the Census Bureau’s turn on the statistical stage.)
Fairfax County is the most populous area in Virginia and has seen the largest population loss in the state since the 2020 census census. Here’s what happened in Fairfax County in 2023, according to the Census Bureau: Births outnumbered deaths by 7,376. However, domestic migration was -13,405, meaning there were 13,405 more people moving out than moving in. We’ve covered the reasons for the outmigration before: baby boomers retiring, young couples being put off by high housing costs, taxes potentially driving people out of the state, transportation complicating things for everyone, and more. So we won’t go into them in detail. Instead, what we’re seeing is maternity wards not being able to keep up with the moving trucks. However, there is one thing that mitigates Fairfax’s population loss: international migration. Last year, 8,536 immigrants moved into the county. Adding all of this together, the population increases slightly, according to the Census Bureau figures. (Weldon Cooper shows that Fairfax’s population is still declining slightly.) Whether these figures are slightly increasing or slightly decreasing is not so important for today’s discussion. What matters is that without immigration, Fairfax County’s population would certainly be declining. With immigration, the county can make up for all or most of the population loss.
The story is similar in other counties: Arlington saw births exceed deaths by 1,627, but lost 2,979 people to domestic outmigration, but immigration made up the difference, resulting in a net gain of 1,838 people, keeping Arlington in the positive category.
Virginia Beach had 1,718 more births than deaths but lost 4,026 people due to domestic migration, but this was mitigated by a net immigration of 881 people.
Roanoke fits into a different category. Last year, Roanoke saw 167 more deaths than births, and out-of-city migration fell by 576. But the Star City added 271 immigrants. The city may need to figure out why it has such a high net out-migration rate and how to reverse it, but it may also need to think about how to attract more immigrants.
Lynchburg achieved a rare triple gain: population growth from births exceeded deaths. Plus, it had positive contributions from both domestic and international migration. Consider this: 41 percent of the Hill City’s population growth last year was due to immigration. That’s not unusual in places with growing populations. In Albemarle County, 48 percent of the county’s population growth was due to immigration. In Loudoun County, the figure is 55 percent.
I could go on and on, but I think you get the point. Plus, there’s a map!
The point is that rural and urban areas are in very different situations. Many rural areas need more immigrants to halt population decline, but they have never seen many immigrants, so the immigration debate is largely irrelevant to them. While some viewers of a particular national news program may be outraged by the dire situation at the southern border, immigration does not directly affect their daily lives. This makes them more likely to support candidates who promise to reduce immigration, because they have nothing to lose. Meanwhile, many urban areas have economies that depend on immigrants (legal or not) to fill workplace shortages. So it seems natural that urban politicians would be favorable toward immigrants.
I’ve said it before, so I won’t say it again: it’s probably not healthy for a society to be divided along geographic lines. Immigration is a good example. If you live in the countryside, it’s hard to understand why immigration is an economic force in cities. If you live in the city, it’s hard to understand why the countryside doesn’t recognize the obvious economic benefits of immigration.
If you want to learn more, I recommend this Boston University report on how immigration helps drive the economy. Here’s a key excerpt: “We found that the arrival of an additional 10,000 immigrants in a given U.S. county dramatically increased the number of patent applications per capita in that county by about 25 percent, with effects rippled as far away as 150 miles. The research team also estimated that foreign migration to the U.S. may have contributed to a 5 percent increase in wages since 1965.”
We can debate the southern border all day, but the southern border is not the whole immigration issue. Here’s the reality: A lot of our economy depends on urban economic success (in Virginia, Northern Virginia basically subsidizes rural Virginia, especially school funding), and a lot of urban economic success depends on immigration. Mess around with that at your own risk.
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Left: John McGuire. Right: Bob Good. McGuire photo by Bob Brown. Good photo courtesy of the Good Campaign.
I write a political newsletter called West of the Capital that comes out every Friday afternoon. This week I’ll be participating in the recount of the 5th District Republican Primary and hoping to gain some insight from it. You can sign up for this newsletter and other free newsletters here.
