NORTH CAROLINA (WTVD) — With just a week left until Election Day, we’re starting to get a better idea of who’s going to vote.
More than 3.1 million people across North Carolina have voted between absentee and early voting.
As of Tuesday, registered Republicans had a slight 34% to 33% turnout advantage over registered Democrats, with independents making up the remaining 32%.
Republican allies see that as a positive sign.
“We’re encouraged, excited and surprised. It was a great surprise,” said Sandy Joyner of the Western Wake Republican Club.
Sandy Joyner says this is a change for Republicans from 2020, when voters were told to wait until Election Day.
“A big part of the push is that Democrats have always had an advantage in early voting, and what can we do to spread the message to make sure that we’re voting and that we’re not voting? “We’ve been promoting it really hard because we can’t wait until Election Day,” she says.
The data also shows that Black voters, who have historically been the core of the Democratic base, are slightly behind in turnout, making up 18% of those who have cast a ballot, despite being 20% of registered voters. It also shows that
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Former state Rep. Larry Hall (D-Durham) said he believes things could improve this week.
“I always want to be far ahead of the curve. We’re not in that situation at the moment, but with the effort and determination and the message that we have, we’re far ahead of the curve. ” says Hall.
Another data point that Democrats are looking at is the fact that women’s turnout is 55 to 45 percent higher than men’s, at a time when women’s rights have become a major campaign issue.
Democrats also believe they can garner some crossover support and believe independent voters, who make up the state’s largest voting bloc, can lead the way.
“Independent voters are key. They are young, and newly registered voters are even younger. The youth vote is breaking support for Harris, with nearly every poll showing her as a supporter. So we feel encouraged by that,’ and the important thing is to get them to the polls,” Hall said.
Meanwhile, political science experts at Duke University also cautioned people against reading too much into 2024 turnout data compared to four years ago, as the number of voters back then was vastly different.
“During the pandemic, we’ve seen a huge increase in the number of people voting absentee, and there’s been a fundamental shift in messaging from the Republican Party, which means more Republicans are voting early and voting absentee,” Professor Sunshine Hilligas said. “The proportion has increased significantly.”
In the long run, experts say the state’s demographic changes will lead to a more diverse electorate and migration from other states, similar to how Georgia turned blue for Joe Biden in 2020. We believe that the number of people with disabilities will increase and the political situation may change.
“North Carolina may be starting to resemble Georgia in terms of its racial and ethnic demographics, but the number of people moving into the state from outside has also made enough changes in the population over the past four years. “In North Carolina, we’re seeing a trend from purplish to blue,” says Professor Kelly Haney.
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