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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Halfway through the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Mordecai Lee, a professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and former Democratic congressman, offered a blunt assessment: “The Democrats and Biden are done.”
Democratic presidential candidate Donald Trump had just survived an assassination attempt. A historic photo shows him yelling “Fight!” as he is helped off the stage at a rally in Pennsylvania. Trump had picked J.D. Vance, an energetic 39-year-old Ohio senator, as his running mate. A federal judge had dismissed criminal charges that Trump had improperly handled classified documents after leaving the White House. Democratic leaders had advised President Joe Biden not to campaign for a second term.
A week later, Biden withdrew. Biden and nearly every other leading Democrat endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. To send a message to the Trump/Vance camp, Democratic donors quickly gave $100 million to her campaign, growing that to $200 million by the end of last week.
Professor Lee, what’s your new assessment? “To my complete surprise, the political impact of President Trump surviving the shooting has almost completely dissipated,” Professor Lee said last week.
“It was a political tsunami, but then it was followed by another tsunami from Biden to Harris. I said, [then] “That’s just not true anymore. You can’t try to predict the future based on where we are today.”
“I think what the media overlooked were the factors that prompted the timing of Biden’s decision: the assassination attempt, the subsequent surge in support for Trump, followed by a well-staged Republican National Convention and Trump’s (semi-) conciliatory acceptance speech. For a politician like Biden, it was the final straw.”
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With less than 100 days until Nov. 5, Lee called the Trump-Harris race a “close contest.”
He explained: “If you look at the political positions objectively, Democrats have always done well with female voters, but now they’re doing even better. Trump has always done well with men, but now they’re doing even better. The big question is whether Harris can overcome Biden’s unpopularity. That’s easier said than done.”
There are a few reasons why Harris chose Milwaukee as the site of her first campaign rally as her party’s presumptive presidential nominee. “The road to the White House runs through Wisconsin,” she said.
Wisconsin is one of the few states that will choose the next president. Milwaukee’s African-American voter turnout could determine the statewide election. Harris’ enthusiastic support among Wisconsin’s college students could be crucial to her victory in the state. Harris also spent part of her childhood in Madison.
Before the Milwaukee visit, Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman Brian Schimming dismissed the transition from Biden to Harris.
“Kamala Harris’ approval ratings are just as bad as Joe Biden’s,” Siming told reporters, “so they’re replacing one bad candidate with another bad candidate so that people in this state and this country don’t realize where she actually stands on the issues.”
Lee also added a history lesson to Democrats’ optimism.
“Think back to 1968!” Lee warned when Democratic President Lyndon Johnson announced in March that he would not run for a second term.
“First, Vice President Hubert Humphrey tried hard to distance himself from President Johnson’s unpopular Vietnam War, but he was not willing to disown him,” Lee said.
“Second, the continued hostility of pacifists within the Democratic Party continued to hurt Humphrey through the fall, similar to the hostility toward Harris from far-left wingers such as Gaza and Social Democrats. That may be enough to sink her, just as it did Humphrey.”
“Third, when an incumbent is seeking reelection, voters often view the election as a referendum on the incumbent’s performance. Will they be pleased or displeased? With no traditional incumbent this year, the campaign trend is more likely to focus on the future: What would I do if I were elected?
Anthony Chergoski, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said Wisconsin will still play a decisive role in the election.
“Even after this historic event, we’re still talking about the same six or seven key states as the focal point of the election,” Chergoski said. “Wisconsin will remain very close to the tipping point in the Electoral College.”
“A key question is how the electoral map will change with the change in the top Democratic candidate,” Chergoski added. “Harris could potentially gain more support than Biden among younger voters and voters of color, which could boost Democratic hopes in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.”
Who’s in the lead? “The polls suggest Trump may have a slight lead, but it’s expected to be a very tight race,” Chergosky said.
Steven Walters began covering Capitol Hill in 1988. He can be reached at stevenscotwalters@gmail.com.
