Canaves agreed, adding that both Democratic and Republican voters are optimistic about the election’s outcome. “Both sides are feeling the momentum and energy,” he said. “That could translate into an improved short-term outlook and move some consumer sentiment.” But the same can’t be said for independents and undecideds, who face more uncertainty, he added.
After all, a shaky election is likely to mean shaky consumer spending. “Unfortunately, election times are not necessarily the most auspicious or exciting times to be an American,” Sanders said.
What should brands know?
Kanaves says spending tends to drop off especially in the weeks surrounding elections: “Consumers may simply be distracted and not be thinking as much about shopping during that time,” he explains.
Beyond the fallout from the election and the fact that consumer sentiment remains unclear, brands should already be thinking about the holiday season, according to Sanders, which he said is likely to get even more unclear as the election moves into its final stages.
The election is five days into November, and this holiday season will see fewer post-Thanksgiving shopping days as Thanksgiving falls as late as possible on November 28. This means brands will need to strategize to maximize their promotional activity at a time when consumers are looking for discounts.
“Brands should time their marketing campaigns to capitalize on consumer spending from the post-election period through Thanksgiving and plan for fewer marketing days after Thanksgiving,” Kanaves said, “but consumers may not be ready to spend money in the first week or two of November.”
Bain’s Cheris said advertising costs are also likely to be higher than usual heading into November.
“Consumers may not be ready to start shopping for the first week or two of November.”
The best thing brands can do is prepare for shocks and surprises, Sanders said: “This election cycle has already been full of shocks and surprises, and there will undoubtedly be more shocks and surprises to come in the run up to November. Brands need to understand that these events have the potential to destabilize trade.”
One thing brands will have to think about during this uncertainty is getting their political message across, which won’t be easy. “Brands will be grappling with how to approach political sentiment and candidates,” Kanaves said. “We’ve seen consumer backlash around certain brand campaigns and brand initiatives, and then backlash against that backlash.”
Brands, as always, need to watch their step, she says: “Brands need to tread very carefully in how they approach holiday marketing and when engaging in discussions that touch on hot-button political and social issues, just like any other hot-button issue,” she continues.
It remains to be seen how consumer sentiment will fare after the election. “We don’t know what kind of volatility there will be after the election, what kind of social unrest there will be. Those are very unpredictable factors,” Kanaves said. “A lot will depend on who wins.”
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