Alex MacDonald Cronkite News Service
Many young workers don’t think they’ll ever get a dime of Social Security benefits.
“I expect the program will be gone by the time I leave my job,” said Peter Fairbanks, 24, a Phoenix regional manager for a company that sells skin-care products.
Despite widespread skepticism, Gen Z and millennials tend not to worry much about benefits they might receive 40 or 50 years from now, so the issue may not have much impact on them on Election Day, Arizona political experts say — unless one of the presidential candidates comes up with a plan to ensure the program’s survival.
“It’s not a high priority for me,” said Sid Schonwald, 23, of Phoenix, a site engineer for general contractor Skanska.
He’s resigned to the idea that by the time he turns 67 (the current retirement age for people born after 1959), he’ll have to wait even longer to collect his Social Security, if he still has any left.
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“I’m still young, so I think I have plenty of time to plan it,” he said.
A recent National Association of Retirement Plans survey conducted by The Harris Poll found that 45% of Gen Zers and 39% of millennials think they will never collect Social Security benefits.
“Their own use of the program is far into the future and uncertain, and the specific costs they will actually incur on a biweekly basis are largely hidden and unquantified,” said James Gimpel, a political science professor at the University of Maryland.
But Gen Z workers also want to hear more detailed proposals to strengthen Social Security and avoid cuts to benefits, according to a poll from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which advocates for fiscal responsibility, along with 95% of voters across party lines and generations.
Ensuring that Social Security is affordable for both current retirees and workers decades away from retirement is important to 96% of voters, according to the poll.
Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have been vague about how they would strengthen the program.
The program, as currently structured, is headed for insolvency because payments to current retirees are funded through payroll taxes paid by current workers.
As the population ages, the disparities between these groups are widening, with incomes insufficient relative to spending.
According to the most recent Social Security trustee report, the annual shortfall is about $40 billion, with expenses of $1.392 trillion and revenues of $1.351 trillion.
The latest projections show that, with no changes to earnings, benefits or retirement ages, the fund will run out of reserves in 2033. Without changes, the board projects it will have to cut benefits by about 20% after 2034.
The last time Congress raised the retirement age was in 1983, when it was gradually increased over 33 years from 65 to 67.
Those born after 1959 can’t collect their full retirement benefits until age 67. A reduced benefit is available starting at age 62.
None of the solutions to looming bankruptcy are popular: higher taxes, across-the-board benefit cuts, or caps on benefits for high-income earners and the wealthy.
Raising the retirement age is one of the easiest options. Raising the retirement age to 70 would effectively reduce average benefits by 20% based on life expectancy.
Biden has promised not to cut benefits and campaigned on a platform of raising taxes on high earners to save Social Security.
Currently, income up to $168,600 a year is subject to Social Security payroll tax; under Biden’s plan, that limit would be raised to $400,000.
Proposals to do just that have no support in Congress, but the Social Security Administration projects that such changes, along with some more arcane tax code tweaks, could keep Social Security afloat for the next 75 years.
Such tax increases would be unacceptable to Republican lawmakers.
Like Biden, Trump has promised to protect Social Security but has not offered details on how he would do so.
The Republican Party’s latest policy platform vows to protect the program “without any cuts, including changes to the retirement age.”
The Republican platform ties border security to Social Security, on the premise that immigration weakens the system. Research by the left-leaning Brookings Institution and the Bipartisan Policy Center has found that immigration, even illegally, has a positive effect on Social Security.
Although only U.S. citizens can receive Social Security benefits, many immigrants pay taxes into the Social Security system through payroll taxes.
The oldest member of Gen Z is 27 years old. Millennials are currently between the ages of 28 and 43.
According to a Peterson Foundation poll, 93% of voting-age people in these groups want to keep the Social Security system healthy.
Fairbanks said the future of the retirement system is “very dire.” He is more concerned about the national debt, which is now $34.9 trillion and growing.
“We should prioritize that over Social Security,” he said, adding that “Social Security is something we should look at after we’ve dealt with the national debt.”
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